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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.