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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."